SIP Goal Calculator (How Much SIP Do I Need?)

SIP Goal Calculator (How Much SIP Do I Need?)

Work backwards from a goal: the monthly SIP needed to reach a target amount in a set number of years at an assumed return, with the target raised for inflation if you enter it in today’s money.

Monthly SIP needed

Goal + years → monthly SIP
What the goal would cost if you paid for it today.
An assumption, not a promise. Try a lower figure as well.
Education and healthcare costs often rise faster than general prices. Enter 0 if the goal is already a future amount. Defaults to 6% for rupees, above the RBI’s 4% target, as a cautious figure; for other currencies, the central bank’s target (US/UK/Euro/Canada 2%). For AED, SAR, PKR, BDT and MYR there is no official target: enter your own estimate.
$38,540Example

A goal costing $50,00,000 today, 10 years away, with 6% inflation and a 12% expected return

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The SIP needed for a goal

P = T × i ÷ {[(1 + i)n − 1] × (1 + i)}, where T = goal × (1 + f)years
T
the goal in future money
f
the inflation rate on the goal, as a decimal
i
the monthly rate: annual return ÷ 12 ÷ 100
n
the number of monthly instalments: years × 12

Worked example

A goal costing $50,00,000 today, 10 years away, with 6% inflation and a 12% expected return
Goal in 10 years = 50,00,000 × 1.0610 = 50,00,000 × 1.7908 = $89,54,238
i = 0.01; n = 120; (1.01)120 = 3.3004
P = 89,54,238 × 0.01 ÷ (3.3004 − 1) ÷ 1.01 = $38,540 a month
Without the inflation step it would be $21,520 — the gap is the cost of ignoring rising prices

SIP needed for a goal of 50,00,000 in today’s money, 6% inflation

YearsGoal in future moneySIP at 10%SIP at 12%
5 years$66,91,128$85,693$81,118
10 years$89,54,238$43,351$38,540
15 years$1,19,82,791$28,672$23,748
20 years$1,60,35,677$20,943$16,049
Starting earlier lowers the monthly amount sharply, even though the goal itself grows with inflation.

Working backwards from a goal

A goal such as a child’s education or a home deposit is usually known in today’s prices. The first step is to raise it by inflation to what it will cost when you need it; the second is to find the level monthly SIP that grows to that amount. In the example, a goal of $50,00,000 today costs about $89,54,238 in 10 years at 6% inflation, and reaching it at 12% needs about $38,540 a month. Leaving inflation out would suggest $21,520, and the plan would fall well short.

The formula is the SIP calculator run in reverse, with the same convention — annual return ÷ 12 as the monthly rate and each instalment invested at the start of its month — so a SIP of the amount shown, put into that calculator, gives back the goal. If your income will rise, a smaller SIP raised every year can reach the same goal; the step-up SIP calculator shows the effect.

The chart shows the race. The amber line is the goal’s cost, rising with inflation every year; the blue line is what the SIP has grown to. The SIP starts far behind and closes the gap faster each year, because returns are earned on a growing balance, and the two meet in the final year. In the example, after 5 years the SIP is worth about $31,78,986 while the goal already costs $66,91,128. Being behind halfway is how the plan is meant to look, not a sign it is failing.

Three honest caveats. The return is an assumption, and a plan built on an optimistic figure fails quietly, so try a lower one. Returns near the goal date matter a lot: many planners move money to lower-risk options in the last few years so a late fall does not derail the goal. And gains are usually taxable on redemption, so the amount you can spend may be less than the amount shown. This is arithmetic on the figures you enter, not financial advice.

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Frequently asked questions

How much SIP do I need for a goal?

Raise the goal by inflation to its future cost, then P = T × i ÷ {[(1 + i)n − 1] × (1 + i)}. A goal of $50,00,000 today in 10 years, at 6% inflation and 12% return, needs about $38,540 a month.

Should I include inflation?

Yes, if the goal is in today’s prices. Leaving it out understates the SIP needed; in the example above it would suggest a SIP little more than half the one actually needed.

What if I cannot afford the SIP shown?

Start with what you can and raise it each year, extend the time to the goal, or reduce the goal. Assuming a higher return to make the number smaller only moves the shortfall to the end.

Why is the SIP so far behind the goal in the chart?

Because most of the growth comes late. The goal’s cost rises from the first year, while the SIP’s value builds slowly and then quickly. In the example the SIP is worth $31,78,986 after 5 years against a goal then costing $66,91,128, and the two still meet at $89,54,238 in year 10.

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References

  1. Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) / Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI). Mandatory risk statement for mutual fund communications: “Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.”
  2. Brealey RA, Myers SC, Allen F. Principles of Corporate Finance. McGraw-Hill. Present values, annuities and growing annuities.
  3. Central-bank inflation targets used as default inflation by currency: Reserve Bank of India (4% CPI, flexible inflation targeting framework); U.S. Federal Reserve (2% PCE); European Central Bank (2%); Bank of England (2% CPI); Bank of Canada (2%); Reserve Bank of Australia (2–3%); Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (3% ± 1). Actual inflation often runs above target.